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cashgazette.com June 28, 2017


Oil Prices Up as US Crude Supplies Decline

12 May 2017, 01:44 | Archie Newman

OPEC to U.S. Please don't pump so much oil!More

OPEC to U.S. Please don't pump so much oil!More

Some analysts see little chance of that happening. "If U.S. output continues to level off, supplies continue to decline, and OPEC can agree to, at the very least, extend their quota policy into [the second half of the year], that will be supportive of prices establishing a near-term bottom".

Demand isn't expanding as much as expected: Vitol's Asia head.

"Now they're going to cut another couple thousand [barrels]?"

A pick up in USA oil production has contributed to the imbalance in the market but there were signs last week that American crude inventories had fallen.

The non-OPEC oil supply is expected to rise by 0.95 million barrels per day to an average 58.25 million barrels per day "due to higher expectations for United States growth... along with higher growth in Canada, Norway, Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan and China", the report said.

Oil prices rose Thursday as investors became more optimistic about the influence of production cuts made by the world's major oil exporters.

Production rose, however, and gasoline demand over the last four weeks was 2.5 percent lower than at the same time period a year ago.

According to AAA, the current national average pump price per gallon of regular gasoline is $2.337, down three cents from $2.367 a week ago and down more than five cents per gallon compared with the month-ago price.

Saudi Arabia has lost market shares in Asia to Iran and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia notified several Asian refiners of its first cuts in crude allocations since OPEC's output reduction took effect in January.

"Without an extension of the quotas with continued high compliance, inventories can't be normalized", said analysts at DrillingInfo.com, in a note. Either way, this situation doesn't bode well for oil prices. However, this relies upon the assumption that production cuts (and assumes the agreed upon cuts are being faithfully carried out by nations whose best interests are better served by continuing to pump out oil) are irreplaceable. "Global oil consumption needs to pick up and that will placate a lot of market concerns".

"Saudi is adjusting supplies because it has somewhat supplied full volumes or even more in the previous months", the source said, declining to give specific details on the cuts.

News of a possible extension of the OPEC cuts and reports that US crude stockpiles have dropped by 5.2 million barrels last week slightly boosted worldwide oil prices. Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation are signalling a willingness to prolong output cuts into 2018 to bring inventories down further.

Crude prices rose further in Asia on Thursday, building on overnight gains following an upbeat report on USA inventories.

Indeed, according to the IEA's oil demand and supply figures, the oil market has already entered a state of undersupply. "We're all a bit savvier this time around", said Nasdaq's Essner.

Last week saw supermarkets cut petrol prices twice reflecting the recent pressure on Brent crude.



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