June 23, 2017

This is what Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn's constituents think of them

04 June 2017, 05:07 | Grady King

Poll: UK PM May's Lead Over Labour Nearly Halves to 8 Points

Alan Johnson

He was the least well-regarded leader of either major party in almost four decades, with the exception of Michael Foot, another far-leftist, who led Labour to catastrophic defeat in 1983.

"At the moment this doesn't appear to be troubling the United Kingdom equity market", writes David Stevenson in Strategic Intelligence this week.

The peculiarities of the UK's "first past the post" electoral system means it is hard to predict election results based upon opinion polls, Goodwin said, but even allowing for these uncertainties, he felt YouGov's constituency-by-constituency prediction looked to be an extreme outlier.

IG's general election seats market allows traders to buy and sell the total amount of seats each party could win.

The opposition Labour Party is likely to win 257 seats, YouGov's model showed, versus 253 on Thursday.

The Labour leader insisted he would not strike a deal with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and was working for a majority Labour government.

The British polling industry has taken a beating in the last couple of years.

Jeremy Corbyn has accused Theresa May for not joining other European G7 countries in signing a joint statement that criticises US President Donald trump for pulling out of the Paris climate change agreement. (That's twice as high as originally thought.) Burned by the result of the Brexit referendum, young people have registered in droves for this election. Whether the Conservative government wins by a landslide, by a small majority, or it loses its majority in Parliament (a prospect that sent the pound tumbling) is dependent on youth turnout.

"All Theresa May is saying is that she'll be strong and stable and is the person to lead these negotiations". I think that's insane. Like many of my friends, most of whom come from far less privileged backgrounds than I do, a month ago I wasn't 100% convinced I would even vote Labour. It failed to predict the outcome of the 2015 general election, and didn't call the referendum on Britain's membership within the EU. The poll caught widespread criticism from politicos and polling pros alike, with some noting that Britain's first-past-the-post system (whereby voters vote for a local politician, not a nationwide leader) made seat predictions an exceptionally risky game.

"It's not that there isn't the money, it's that there isn't the priority from this Government to fully fund our public services and more importantly to give a pay rise to our public servants in the NHS and elsewhere in the public sector". The Conservatives are committed to a complete break with the EU.

If Labour doesn't deprive Mrs May of her overall majority, what seems likely is that there will be a battle of the narratives on the airwaves.

Hawkins said: "I guess, if I've got a concern this time around, it's that some of those people who we didn't model in in 2016, are they sensitised to voting now?"

Britain will face 27 countries on the opposite side of the table.

An investigation by the paper found that one in eight tweets about British politics was automatically generated by Corbyn-friendly 'bots.' Up to 1,000 messages a day were arguably being sent out every day "attacking Theresa May or promoting Labour".

The dominant view is still that this is a moot point as just about everyone still expects the Conservatives to win an absolute majority.

Nevertheless, a spokesman for the Conservative Party dismissed the report as "rather irrelevant speculation before an election".

But it's wrong to think opinion polls show Mrs May is a failure.

A hung parliament is portrayed by some as the worst possible scenario, but a coalition government going into the Brexit negotiations might not be such a bad idea at all.

Brexit is the most important issue for the public, but it's not the only game in town.

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